U.S. Markets Recap – November 1, 2025

Core Insights

Macro

The tone entering Monday is cautious: the Federal Reserve may still be holding fire on further rate cuts despite market hopes, and that keeps yields elevated while the dollar holds firm. At the same time, optimism around a potential U.S.–China trade framework is providing a partial tail‑wind for risk assets, but the upside remains tempered given sticky inflation and geopolitical jitters. The risk: if data surprises to the upside and the Fed delays easing, liquidity could get squeezed.

Equities

Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are pointing higher, led by tech names like Apple Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. showing strength in pre‑market moves. That said, breadth remains thin and the market is relying heavily on mega‑cap momentum, which means if one of those cracks, the broader index may falter. The watch‑out: earnings disappointments or a hawkish Fed signal could quickly cool the mood.

Crypto & RatesIn

the crypto space, both Bitcoin and Ethereum remain under pressure as ETF flows have dried up and long‑term holders are trimming. BeInCrypto+2BeInCrypto+2 At the same time, the 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield is hovering around 4.10 % and the dollar index is firming, which tends to sap risk appetite. The key dichotomy: if yields rise further, growth and crypto both lose favour.

Key Data Snapshot

• S&P 500: ~6,900 (futures up ≈ +0.65 %)

• Nasdaq‑100: futures up ~+1.18 %

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: ~47,732 (futures +0.12 %)

• VIX (fear index): modest pullback, still elevated (no exact figure available)

• Bitcoin (BTC): near ~$110,000 and down ~2.5% in recent sessions

• Ethereum (ETH): hovering near ~$3,877 and also down ~2 %‑3%

• WTI crude oil: modest rebound amid optimism on trade and growth (no exact figure quoted)

• 10‑Year U.S. Treasury yield: ~4.10% (up ~0.04 pts)

• U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): holding firm — no dramatic move lower yet

Tomorrow’s Watchlist & Scenarios

Base case: Economic data (PMI, ISM services) come in roughly in‑line. Tech earnings are solid but not explosive. Markets grind higher modestly, with tech holding the baton and crypto staying range‑bound.

Bullish case: Data surprises positively, tech earnings crush expectations, and a trade deal headline emerges. The S&P breaks to new highs, Bitcoin stages a quick bounce. Key triggers to watch: strong PMI numbers + a specific Chinese trade headline.

Risk case: Inflation/ISM data surprise on the upside or the Fed signals patience/hawkishness. Yields jump, the dollar strengthens, tech falters, crypto liquidates further. Watch for a spike in the 10‑year yield above ~4.25% or a sharp drop in ETF flows.

— Jenna Ryan, CFA